Our indicators indicate the market to open higher today due to the labor settlement with GM and the UAW. GM should trade up strong today on lower future cost. We are reentering GM in the premarket at $36.45 for 200,000 shares. We see the markt selling off after the GM news is absorbed into the trading models.
The durable goods orders were lowered than expected as we predicted. Durable goods included stove, refrigs, large appliances and other purchases typically associated with home purchases. With new home sales down and both Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW) reporting lower sales, the durable goods order was destined to be lower.
Apple remains strong on a new price target of $181 by Wall St.
Showing posts with label Low. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Low. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
GOIH Capital Markets: Lowes (LOW) down on lower sales.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Lowe's slumped in Tuesday trading after the home-improvement retailer said that sales are trending below plan and warned that its fiscal 2007 earnings would come in at the low end of its previous expectations.
Mooresville, N.C.-based Lowe's attributed the slowing sales to drought conditions in the mid-Atlantic, Southeastern and Western regions, which hurt sales of outdoor products. The company said late Monday that it now expects fiscal full-year earnings at the low end of its earlier forecast of $1.97 to $2.01 a share.
In a conference call before the start of trading Tuesday, Chief Executive Robert Niblock underlined the problems facing the company, saying that the sales environment remains challenging as consumers hesitate to take on some projects, and adding that pressures on the housing market are mostly regional in nature.
Mooresville, N.C.-based Lowe's attributed the slowing sales to drought conditions in the mid-Atlantic, Southeastern and Western regions, which hurt sales of outdoor products. The company said late Monday that it now expects fiscal full-year earnings at the low end of its earlier forecast of $1.97 to $2.01 a share.
In a conference call before the start of trading Tuesday, Chief Executive Robert Niblock underlined the problems facing the company, saying that the sales environment remains challenging as consumers hesitate to take on some projects, and adding that pressures on the housing market are mostly regional in nature.
GOIH Capital Markets: Market Overview
Our indicators see the market opening lower today due to weakness in Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW), Target (TGT) and the other consumer retailers. As we have reported here in earlier posts the consumer is tapped out and especially in the home products retailers HD and LO the outlook is not positive.
We see GM trading lower due to the strike of the UAW. It's estimated that the strike will costs GM $5.0 billion if it lasts for very long. GM will lose about $100 million per day during the strike.
See a little weakness in Apple (AAPL) due to making a new high on Monday.
The Feds rate cuts were largely symbolic and of little effect to the consumer's confidence.
The homebuilders are continuing to see weakness in their stocks with Lennar reporting today and is down in the premarket indicating lower earnings.
We will update during the day as our models generate trading ideas and information.
We see GM trading lower due to the strike of the UAW. It's estimated that the strike will costs GM $5.0 billion if it lasts for very long. GM will lose about $100 million per day during the strike.
See a little weakness in Apple (AAPL) due to making a new high on Monday.
The Feds rate cuts were largely symbolic and of little effect to the consumer's confidence.
The homebuilders are continuing to see weakness in their stocks with Lennar reporting today and is down in the premarket indicating lower earnings.
We will update during the day as our models generate trading ideas and information.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Global 1 Capital Markets: Market Update.
The market opened strongly with both the Dow and NASDAQ up sharply. We see Countrywide, CFC, continued in its recovery and there appears to be some strength in the rumors that CFC is being accumulated for a possible buyout by a large investor.
Apple, Inc., (NASDAQ:AAPL) was up strongly in the open trading as high as $132.61 on strong volume.
Today Lowe’s was upgraded twice. The home improvement retailer opened up at $29.64 and has traded as high as $29.84.
We see the Yen weakening and we are designing a carry trade in the Yen/$ market. We will post the trade later today.
GOIH Capital Markets
Apple, Inc., (NASDAQ:AAPL) was up strongly in the open trading as high as $132.61 on strong volume.
Today Lowe’s was upgraded twice. The home improvement retailer opened up at $29.64 and has traded as high as $29.84.
We see the Yen weakening and we are designing a carry trade in the Yen/$ market. We will post the trade later today.
GOIH Capital Markets
GOIH Capital Markets: Hedge Fund: Stock Watch List: TGT, LOW, TOL (short), EFTC, AMTD (merger talk)
Our stock list for Aug. 22, 2007:
TGT, LOW, TOL, AMTD, EFTC, AAPL, GS, BSC, CFC
TGT, LOW, TOL, AMTD, EFTC, AAPL, GS, BSC, CFC
Monday, August 20, 2007
GOIH Capital Markets: Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC)
Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) opened for trading at $21.71 and has traded as low as $19.74 on heavy volume of 35.4 million shares. The cut in the Discount Rate is only a short term fix to stave off bankruptcy. The commercial paper market was inaccessible to CFC after Thurs of last week and CFC had tapped out its credit lines of $11.5 billion unsecured to the banks that funded the LOC. We see CFC trading lower until the housing market makes a drastic turn around which we do not foresee within the next 12 months.
Lowes (NYSE:LOW) reported earning today and has traded between $28.20 and $28.90, we see Low as a potential out performer in the short term given hurricane season is upon us. We see Lowes benefiting from any building supplies purchases resulting from hurricane damage.
Lowes (NYSE:LOW) reported earning today and has traded between $28.20 and $28.90, we see Low as a potential out performer in the short term given hurricane season is upon us. We see Lowes benefiting from any building supplies purchases resulting from hurricane damage.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Yen rally continues after U.S. data: Is the Carry Trade affecting the global equity markets?
Yen rally continues after U.S. data
By Leslie Wines
Last Update: 8:44 AM ET Aug 16, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The yen remained sharply higher against its rivals early Thursday, after data showing that housing starts dropped to a 10-month low last month. Another report showed that claims for unemployment benefits last week hit their highest level since mid-June. The data did not have its usual impact on the market because investors' attention remains trained on turmoil in the credit markets. Shaky credit market conditions are forcing investors to unwind carry trades in which they borrow yen to buy higher-yielding assets.
The shakiness also is sparking heavy purchasing of government-backed Treasurys, a phenomenon that is lifting the dollar a bit against the euro and pound. At last check, the euro was down 0.02% at $1.3426, the dollar down 1.4% at 114.57 yen, and the pound sterling down 0.09% at $1.9855.
GOIH Commentary:
As we have reported in the past, we believe the Yen carry trade is the global liquidity window funding the global equity markets recent assent. We have said before that astute investors borrow in the Japanese market at 1% and invest in higher yielding assets. The interest rate risk is minimal since that can be hedged, allowing an investor to speculate on exchange risk which can also be hedged with forward contracts.
In essence astute investors borrow the Yen, invest in Australian fixed income products yielding 9%, and use the Australian fixed income instruments as collateral to invest in US equities, thus causing the Dow and NASDAQ to make new highs each day in June and July.
As we at Global 1 Financial see things, we are forecasting continued disruptions in the US housing market since the subprime lender and borrower are effectively shut out of the market, thereby eliminating any marginal increase in housing starts.
We are beginning to see stress in the consumer retail stocks, thereby the consumer is beginning to feel the affects of the economic slow down. Because the consumers' wages have been flat, the source of funding for the consumer has been the equity in their home. But because home values have begun to decline the retail consumer is not able to make retail purchases funded by home equity, thus causing the slow down in consumer spending and the slow down in consumer stocks.
We see consumer retailers weak for the third quarter and continuing into the fourth quarter. We especially see Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowes (NYSE:LOW) weak as consumer retailers in the home improvement sector.
GOIH Global Economics
By Leslie Wines
Last Update: 8:44 AM ET Aug 16, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The yen remained sharply higher against its rivals early Thursday, after data showing that housing starts dropped to a 10-month low last month. Another report showed that claims for unemployment benefits last week hit their highest level since mid-June. The data did not have its usual impact on the market because investors' attention remains trained on turmoil in the credit markets. Shaky credit market conditions are forcing investors to unwind carry trades in which they borrow yen to buy higher-yielding assets.
The shakiness also is sparking heavy purchasing of government-backed Treasurys, a phenomenon that is lifting the dollar a bit against the euro and pound. At last check, the euro was down 0.02% at $1.3426, the dollar down 1.4% at 114.57 yen, and the pound sterling down 0.09% at $1.9855.
GOIH Commentary:
As we have reported in the past, we believe the Yen carry trade is the global liquidity window funding the global equity markets recent assent. We have said before that astute investors borrow in the Japanese market at 1% and invest in higher yielding assets. The interest rate risk is minimal since that can be hedged, allowing an investor to speculate on exchange risk which can also be hedged with forward contracts.
In essence astute investors borrow the Yen, invest in Australian fixed income products yielding 9%, and use the Australian fixed income instruments as collateral to invest in US equities, thus causing the Dow and NASDAQ to make new highs each day in June and July.
As we at Global 1 Financial see things, we are forecasting continued disruptions in the US housing market since the subprime lender and borrower are effectively shut out of the market, thereby eliminating any marginal increase in housing starts.
We are beginning to see stress in the consumer retail stocks, thereby the consumer is beginning to feel the affects of the economic slow down. Because the consumers' wages have been flat, the source of funding for the consumer has been the equity in their home. But because home values have begun to decline the retail consumer is not able to make retail purchases funded by home equity, thus causing the slow down in consumer spending and the slow down in consumer stocks.
We see consumer retailers weak for the third quarter and continuing into the fourth quarter. We especially see Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowes (NYSE:LOW) weak as consumer retailers in the home improvement sector.
GOIH Global Economics
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