Our Monte Carlo simulation formulated on a financial company game theory stochastic input, sees ETFC filing for chapter 11 protection from it creditors within 60 days. However, any chapter 11 reorganization will fail because ETFC had no equity after the write down in its sub-prime loan portfolio. We see creditors getting about $0.23 on the dollar based on our models.
ETFC now trading below $4.00 on 35 million volume.
Our synthetic hedge fund position in ETFC has already profited more than $3.5 million within the last 5 days.