Our models are indicating a weak opening for the market to slightly down on low volume pending the jobs report on Friday. The consensus is a flat number which will give the Fed a rational basis to continue the rate cuts it started in September.
The market has traded down Tues and Wed. after opening strong on Monday. As we reported here our models did not forecast the market increase on Monday as a fundamental shift in investor sentiment, but a one off day of market posturing with hot money.
We will report back during the day with our forecast of the jobs number based on the results our models predict. The jobs number is a very subjective number with much room for various interpretations and is by its nature open to management for a particular result.
Our models are calibrated to take into account a global macro perspective and find the dominate trend in the markets and predict industry sectors for returns.
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